Posted at 22 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.406% , 3.319% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.837%,3.829% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.755%,3.697% previous
• US Dec Leading Index (MoM) -0.1%, -0.3% forecast,-0.5% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.225%,5.225% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.020%, 4.975% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Dec Australia NAB Business Survey 9 previous
•00:30 Dec Australia NAB Business Confidence -9 previous
•05:00 Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY) 2.8% forecast,2.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 02:30 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision-0.10% forecast,-0.10% previous
• 03:00 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
• 06:30 Japan BoJ Press Conference
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro eased slightly against dollar on Monday as investors awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision due this week. Investors are waiting for the ECB's monetary policy decision, due on Jan. 25, to ascertain the timing of interest rate cuts from the central bank. The debate has shifted somewhat as policymakers accept that the next move is a rate cut, but later and less than what markets expect.Market analysts think the ECB's inflation and growth outlook is wrong however, and market pricing currently indicates expectations of five 25 basis points cuts this year. The euro was down 0.1% at $1.0880. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0934(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0970(Jan 15th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0850(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0832(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound steadied against the dollar on Monday as markets digested last week's mixed data releases and their impact on monetary policy. Britain's annual rate of consumer price inflation sped up for the first time in 10 months last month, official data showed last week.But retail sales slumped 3.2% in December, the biggest fall since January 2021, and there were further signs of a loosening labour market as British wages grew at their slowest pace in almost a year, the Office for National Statistics said. The pound was last little changed at $1.2707, in the middle of the $1.2597-$1.2825 range it has traded in since December 14. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2799(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2633 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2592(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Monday, retreating from a one-week peak, as investors assessed the possibility of a dovish stance from the Bank of Canada in the upcoming policy decision this week. At its policy meeting on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain its benchmark overnight rate steady at a 22-year high of 5%, while also updating its inflation and economic growth predictions . The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 2.4% higher at $75.19 a barrel as traders saw oil supply tightening due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3480 to the greenback , after earlier touching its strongest level since Jan. 15 at 1.3416. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3490 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3554(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3431 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3372(61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Monday ahead of central bank policy decisions in Japan. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to diverge from anticipations for a move out of negative-rates territory in April during the post-decision press conference. Additionally, there is a possibility that the bank will revise down its full-year inflation forecast. The yen, influenced by the interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan, has experienced a significant downturn against the dollar this year, dropping approximately 5%. The dollar was last down 0.1% against the Japanese currency at 148.06 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.77(23.6% fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.42( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.80(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 147.25(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European equities gained on Monday, led by tech firms, after a Wall Street surge that sent the benchmark S&P 500 to new highs as investors anticipated the European Central Bank's policy announcement later this week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.77 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.56 percent.
US equities moved higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow closing at another record high, as investors felt more optimistic about the economy's health .
Dow Jones closed down by 0.36% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.22 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.32% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields fell as investors took advantage of a recent decline in bond prices to enter the market ahead of economic indicators due out later this week that may give new information on the direction of interest rates.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to 4.1091% compared with its U.S. close of 4.146% on Friday.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Monday as investors revised their expectations for a US interest rate cut at the end of March, while a spike in equities markets dampened demand for safe-haven metal.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $2,020.09 per ounce at 1:49 p.m. ET (1849 GMT).U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $2022.2.
Oil prices rose about 2% on Monday on concerns over global energy supplies following a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's Novatek , opens new tab fuel terminal and as extreme cold weather continued to hamper U.S. crude production.
Brent March crude futures settled at $80.06 a barrel, up $1.50, or 1.9%.