Posted at 02 February 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. non-farm payrolls data due at 1330 GMT
•French Dec Industrial Production (MoM)1.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French Dec French Government Budget Balance -173.3B,-198.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Jan Manufacturing Payrolls 5K forecast,6K previous
•13:30 US Jan Average Weekly Hours 34.3 forecast,34.3 previous
•13:30 US Jan Government Payrolls 52.0K previous
•13:30 US Jan Private Nonfarm Payrolls 155K forecast,164K previous
•13:30 US Jan Nonfarm Payrolls 187K forecast,216K previous
•13:30 US Jan Unemployment Rate 3.8% forecast,3.7% previous
•13:30 US Jan Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.1% forecast,4.1% previous
•13:30 US Jan Payrolls Benchmark 568.00 previous
•13:30 US Jan Participation Rate 62.5% previous
•13:30 US Jan Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•13:30 US Jan Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a -306.00K previous
•13:30 US Jan U6 Unemployment Rate 7.1% previous
•15:00 US Dec Factory Orders (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 2.6% previous
•15:00 US Dec Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 0.5% previous
•15:00 US Dec Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.6% previous
•15:00 US Jan Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.8% forecast,2.9% previous
•15:00 US Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations 75.9 forecast,67.4 previous
•15:00 US Dec Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) 0.1% previous
•15:00 US Jan Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% forecast,3.1% previous
•15:00 US Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment 78.8 forecast,69.7 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 499 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 621 previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday as traders awaited U.S. jobs data due later on Friday for clues on when the Federal Reserve could begin easing rates. Investors looked ahead to the release of the U.S. January jobs report later in the day, with analysts expecting a modest slowdown in job growth. Economists surveyed anticipate that the US economy generated 180,000 new jobs last month, following a 216,000 gain in December. Annual pay growth, meanwhile, is expected to have remained steady last month. The euro was last up 0.07% against the dollar to $1.0879.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0900(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0924 ( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0847(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0784(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound steadied against dollar on Friday ahead of key U.S. jobs data later in the day that traders are hoping could sway the Federal Reserve towards rate cuts Economists polled estimated the U.S. economy added 180,000 new jobs last month after creating 216,000 in December. Annual wage growth, meanwhile, is forecast to have maintained its solid pace last month.The Fed Reserve on Wednesday signalled that rates would move lower this year but pushed back against expectations for an imminent rate cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2760(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2793(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2613(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar declined against Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data for hints on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting where Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against market expectations of rate cuts in March. The dollar was last down 0.20% at 0.8560. The index is set for a weekly fall of 0.5%, its first week of declines in 2024, and its biggest weekly loss since mid-December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8651(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8718(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8559(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8532(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on as investors turned their focus towards a monthly U.S. jobs report. The markets see Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data as potentially spurring the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate cut timeline if the numbers come in below forecasts. Market participants expect the Fed's first rate cut in May, while the odds of a March cut have fallen to 38% from more than 70% a month ago. The dollar has fallen nearly 1% on the Japanese yen this week, though it was firmer on Friday at 146.75 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.18(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.66(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.01 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.98(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday as traders assessed a flurry of upbeat corporate updates from the region and as the index mirrored overnight gains on Wall Street after softer economic data and upbeat tech results.
At (GMT 13:07 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.84 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.67 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices steadied on Friday as investors braced for U.S. non-farm payrolls data later in the day that could give hints on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting rates, but bullion was still headed for its biggest weekly rise since December.
Spot gold was down 0.1% to $2,054.29 per ounce at 1030 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% to $2,071.40.
Oil prices rose in early trade on Friday following a decision by OPEC+ to keep its oil output policy unchanged, though benchmarks were headed for weekly losses amid unsubstantiated reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Brent crude futures climbed 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $79.07 a barrel at 0415 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $74.12 a barrel.